Iceland would win. Consider what has happened to these 2 countries since 2008. Iceland are not part of the EU and held a public referendum to accept the terms of a repayment deal for money lent by British and Dutch governments as a result of the IceSave crisis.The public rejected the initial terms of the deal (93% against) and the government used this result to negotiate a new and more favorable deal.
Let’s look at the terms. They’re paying fixed rates to both NL and UK. 3% to the Netherlands on £1.2Bn STG and 3.3% to the UK on £2.3 Bn STG. Good terms so far but it gets even better. Payments will not begin until July 2016 and cannot continue beyond 2046. Iceland has also secured a limit on the amount it is expected to pay out relative to its national growth. Payments cannot be lower than 1.3% of Iceland’s GDP nor exceed 5%.