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finance philosophy

Looking forward

It’s been such a crazy year. Changing jobs to a job that wasn’t. Starting a new business with R. Then getting sick and coming close to liver failure, which I thankfully avoided. Almost 3 months out of the office. Now back in work but waiting for an eye operation to correct intermittent diplopia.

Not in any way what I had planned or expected.  Life eh?

It’s funny but when someone says that I’m lucky to be alive I feel some gratitude, of course,  but the real change has been a sense that I lost sight of what life was about for a few years. Life shouldn’t be about negativity. It’s not ok to regularly feel professionally or personally undermined. It’s not ok to dread work days and it’s not ok to put up with festering discontent in yourself or others. Decisions that distance yourself from negativity are good decisions. They preserve the most valuable thing we have in life, our health. Everything else is secondary.

My experience as a workplace mediator is that the most productive workplaces are those where staff feel the management care and that there’s a sense of community and shared responsibility. When employees go on sick leave because of “stress” it’s rarely simply too much work. The best tool managers have at their disposal to resolve conflict in the workplace is listening. Listening is a really difficult skill to master because what we hear may be an affront to our egos. It may challenge our view of the world and what people say may even be insulting.

However, the reason why we listen is to learn and managers need to learn how staff actually feel about their work in order to run a productive workplace. It’s not possible to separate the output of a company from the people in it. A bad corporate culture will produce bad results over a long enough time. Managers interested in creating VALUE care about the corporate culture. Those that are content to make a quick buck may rely on mercenaries and inflation. Thanks to the increasing velocity of money, you can be a short term success with a bad culture but it’s not maintainable over a boom/bust cycle.  A great example is the UK automotive industry which collapsed in the 70s and 80s due to the divisions between management and unions. A recent BBC documentary contrasted that with the success of Works Councils in the German Automotive industry. Unions and works councils are similar ideas but they produced very different results based on different perspectives on management culture.

Workplace disputes are inevitable but long term disputes tend to suggest a problematic management culture. Resolving disputes is important in restoring workplace productivity as employees in dispute cannot be delivering their all for the company and they’re also more likely to leave. R and I formulated a few simple rules for managers to assess whether they have a morale problem that is affecting productivity.

These can be broken down into metrics and feedback. I’ll describe the metrics first.

  1. More than 1% of staff on stress leave of greater than a month in a given year.
  2. Annual employee turnover of full-time staff exceeding ~4%. (Employees are expensive to replace)
  3. Dramatic voluntary staff turnover in response to pay cuts and/or reduces financial performance of the company.  This is indicative of a workforce that’s lost faith in management.  Poor financial performance of the company may be a lagging indicator of poor morale.
  4. Sharp dips  in output (closely matching revenue in service industries) that are not readily explicable based on economic contraction or sector-based comparison. i.e. is your company suddenly performing worse than competitors.
  5. Spikes in the number of constructive/unfair dismissals cases taken against the company.
  6. Spikes in the number of sick leave days taken / quarter and/or a trend for staff to take longer holidays. Obviously, you’d need to compare seasonal averages.
  7. Increase in the number of complaints made to HR about bullying, harassment or stress.

Your HR personnel should be able to calculate at least half of these metrics relatively quickly. If they can’t, then you have a problem as nobody is checking to see that you have a healthy and productive workforce.  Next I’ll describe feedback to HR or managers that indicate morale problems that are affecting productivity.

  1. Multiple bullying or harassment complaints to HR about the same employee.
  2. Multiple complaints about a policy or procedure to managers or HR.
  3. Complaints to managers or HR about poor communications between management and staff.
  4. Managers having regular conversations about staff not pulling their weight.
  5. “Covert” staff meetings that are not either related to specific work tasks or a planned social activity.  The problem isn’t that the meetings are happening but they are indicative of a problem and the challenge is to tackle the problem!
  6. A belief by managers that a workforce is “too unionised” or “militant”. The vast majority of workers just want to get on with their professional lives and have little enthusiasm for industrial action. If it seems like your employees are eager to strike, management need to ask themselves the question why this is and resolve the problem before polarisation of management and workforce develops.

Conflict is not the “steady state” for most workers. (Nor do most businesses need many employees for which conflict is a steady state). They do not enjoy it and would prefer issues to be resolved. Resolving a conflict involves a) Listening to the staff to find out what they think the problem is b) Acknowledging any problems that do exist and explaining why some solutions will require staff compromise, c) outlining a plan to fix them (ideally with support from the employees who raised the issue) and d) implementing that plan over a fixed and realistic timeframe.

It sounds so simple and it is. Sometimes organisations think they’re following this process but the plan in c) has become disconnected from the problems in a). This will only make conflict worse. The only thing that impedes these simple steps from being put in place is ego. It can be the ego of managers who cannot admit failings or surrender any power, or the ego of staff representatives who may  be concerned about the impact of backing down on future negotiations or sometimes appear to have an agenda divergent from staff interests.

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The Unhappy Atheist

It’s funny how often I hear the myth of the unhappy atheist. I’m not saying all atheists are happy but the myth of the unhappy atheist sees us condemned to be miserable because of the hopelessness of our bleak godless outlook. The argument goes like this

  • Believing in “God” gives you hope and strength
  • Life is tough – friends and family die, circumstances change. Lots of things can hit you hard.
  • Life would be bleak without faith
  • Those who don’t believe are unhappy. Even if they don’t seem unhappy, they’re somehow soulless.
  • There has to be something psychologically wrong with you to NOT see “God” everywhere in nature
  • Atheists just need to find God so they can be happy again
  • Richard Dawkins is not a nice person, he’s so rude.

I have a lot of time for Tom Dunne and I like his show but he’s had anti-atheism guests on on several occasions over the past 12 months and they’ve all trotted out the same arguments above. Yesterday’s guest (can’t remember his name) managed to get all these points in.

I’m not an evangelical atheist by any means. I don’t go around preaching to people that atheism will sort out all their problems. I don’t believe it will. If you become an atheist it probably won’t make you richer, more attractive or get you more friends.  You won’t get rewards in an afterlife for atheism and you won’t believe in a powerful friend who will sort out your problems.  Atheism makes NONE OF THE PROMISES of other popular belief systems. Indeed, my experience of it is that even in a country with an 80+% lapsed catholic population, you’re treated with suspicion when people find out you don’t have religious beliefs.

Yet atheism is a belief system. It’s a rational (if there is such a thing as rationality) awareness that you do not see sufficient evidence to believe in the existence of god.  It doesn’t make you sad. Atheists do not spend their days pondering the futility of existence. Believing that you have only a short time in existence doesn’t devalue any second of your life and it doesn’t. What’s it all for? Why does it have to be for ANYTHING?

It’s OK to look at a flower and marvel at evolution. To think nature is an amazing system where simple rules give rise to such amazing complexity. Skepticism is a much undervalued virtue in society. One would think that with the traditional authority figures of Irish society (the church, the banks, political parties) embroiled in tribunals, investigations and financial scandals that principle of healthy and rational skepticism might be looked upon positively.

It’s not OK to be patronised by believers as a way of supporting their beliefs. The repetition of downright lies suggesting all atheists are unhappy or lack a moral compass.

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Utd drive me mad

This is a follow up to a post of 2 years ago written when very frustrated with Manchester United. A lot has happened in the past few years but I’m back to being very frustrated watching them play. Indeed, I actually switched off the tv about 5 minutes before the game ended because it was so bad. How did we get here? Last year was a definite improvement from my perspective. Sure, they didn’t win a trophy but against the big teams they actually put in some very good performances and showed they could chase a game they were losing with gritty determination.

This year has seen some shit shows by comparison. Losing to Brighton. Throwing away a chance too beat Wolves. Getting beaten by Derby. None of these teams are very good. Don’t let anyone suggest Utd were somehow up against a great team or a team that played out of their skin. The problems were of Utd’s own making.

I expected this year to be a slog but hoped we’d be close enough by Xmas to sign a few players and get back into contention to win something, or at least finish in the top 4. That looks a pipe dream right now and I have some ideas as to why the situation is so dire.

Mourinho is depressed

He’ll claim he isn’t but he looks like he has the weight of the world on his shoulders. He wasn’t backed during the summer with both Jose and Woodward leaking information to the press about what they did / didn’t expect about the transfer window. It’s incredible that a list of targets given to Woodward months before the window opened somehow ended up in 2 first team signings (and one of them an under 20 defender) but that’s what happened. Jose’s been acting like a man who protests he wasn’t betrayed but wants everyone to know he was. His frustration with the limitations of some of his players has blinded him to their talents and he’s overcome with negativity.

I like Jose. I’ve liked him as a manager for years but it seems he decided that this team isn’t good enough to win the EPL or UCL and so he’s going to punish the players he has for that. This can’t end well.

Conflict Everywhere

Pogba and Mourinho are both winners but they’re in constant conflict over the past few months  it seems. Why is that?
Well, it appears that they both want better players on the pitch but they find fault in the other for poor performances. Mourinho is correct that Pogba is indisciplined at times. He’s pretty much revamped the side to give Pogba more freedom to get forward but the problems in defence mean that’s a risky proposition. In turn, Pogba blames Mourinho for Utd not attacking more but the attackers Utd have keep losing the ball in the opposition 3rd and they’re not taking the chances that present themselves. Mourinho was genuinely too defensive agains West Ham. It was a terrible mistake to setup to try to counteract them rather than play an attacking game ourselves. On the other hand, Mourinho will look at Pogba in attack and think he could have done more and been less sloppy. They’re both correct but that doesn’t in itself suggest a solution.

It’s just a microcosm of a club where the management, players and owners have different agenda and don’t seem to be pulling in the same direction. Before the EPL started this season, Utd had a terrible preseason, disagreements about transfers and disagreements about when players should return from holidays. That’s a terrible start.

The squad isn’t good enough

I’ve watched the following players for years and they each have a flaw or flaws so great that they don’t deserve to be in this Utd team. A bit like Jose, sometimes all I can see are the flaws but they frustrate me every time I see them on the pitch.

  • Mata – lovely guy but one of the slowest players in the premier league. He’d have to be the most accurate passer and shooter of the ball in EPL history to compensate for how slow he’s become. He’s not and so he’s now a liability against fast counter attacking sides. Pretty much anyone can walk past him and he can’t beat a man.
  • Herrera – another top bloke but he invariably passes sideways or backwards. He slows down play, finds defensive options in the most attacking of moments and generally messes things up. The occasional goal or forward pass seems to disguise his mediocre contributions.
  • Scott McTominay- only a kid but a mediocre talent that should be nowhere near the Utd first team. Maybe he’ll become a player but he isn’t one yet. Ideal to put on the pitch with 5 minutes to go and a 3 goal lead. Disastrous otherwise. I have no idea that Mourinho or Fergie see in this lad.
  • Anthony Martial – lots of talent with little recent return on it in terms of goals and assists. His supporters insist this is entirely down to Mourinho but it shows extraordinary mental  fragility for a top flight footballer. On technique alone he could be one of the best attackers in world football but his decision making in shooting and playing the final pass is poor. He seems to panic or get upset under pressure.
  • Phil Jones – a committed defender who reads the game poorly at times and gets injured or gives away cheap goals as a result. He’d have to be very fast to make up for his brain farts and he isn’t. Again, he seems a good bloke but he shouldn’t be playing for Utd.
  • Romeleu Lukaku – a big mistake of a signing. He was bought last year to score the kind of opportunistic goals that we weren’t getting because Zlatan is embarrassed to score anything that isn’t a worldie, so he missed hatfuls of chances. Lukaku is a much more orthodox CF who appeared to have his best year last season. This season he’s reverted to the mean and we’re left with a player with one of the poorest first touches in top flight football. Sure, he can occasionally show something better but overall, he’s contributing almost nothing to the team when he doesn’t score. Worse, his passing and touch mess up our attacks. Worth nowhere near £75M
  • Alexis Sanchez – another huge signing mistake. He’s trying but he’s nowhere near the player he was. Slower, less agile, less accurate and just annoyed with himself and others when things don’t work out. At least he tries but it’s a modest contribution for such huge investment. This signing is where Mourinho’s reign at Utd really started to come under pressure. Sanchez just hasn’t worked out and we swapped a useful right-sided player as part of the deal.
  • Marcus Rashford – hasn’t developed much in the past 2 years. His decision making is terrible and he in no way deserves the number 10 jersey. Maybe Jose’s fault, maybe not. Difficult to know. He’s gotten game time but he’s rarely delivered.

The following players are good enough however and should start most games. David De Gea, Bailly, Luke Shaw, Pogba (despite his attitude), Pereira, Matic. Yes I’m including Pereira. He can pass and dribble. He has great vision and it’s a mistake he’s not getting game time at Utd.  Dalot and Fred look good at times and I think they’ll both have decent careers at the club. Dalot in particular looks like he could be a long term RB choice, which is amazing given his age.

I believe this team will win nothing without changing key positions including a new centre froward, right-sided attacker and a world class central defender. The rest of the side isn’t so bad however. Much better than today’s result suggested.